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China, the big bully


Big bully. 
Indian and Chinese troops have been locked in a bitter military stand off in at least four areas in eastern Ladakh for a month. 
While both countries have eventually held diplomatic talks to resolve the stand off by way of peaceful discussion, the bilateral relations continue to be at an all time low, say almost hostile. This development is not really new what  with our bigger neighbour being conniving since long and playing under-the-table politics.  
China achieved super power status sometime recently largely by giving loans to poor, needy countries along with collateral and thus making a foothold within, when the borrowing countries are unable to repay the debt. China has used this tactic so often that today countries like Djibouti, Tonga, Maldives, Republic of Congo, Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Niger, Laos, Zambia, Samoa, Varuato, Mongolia, etc, owe debt of at least 20% of their nominal GDP to China. However no official data exists on the resulting debt flows and stocks, due to which there is an incomplete picture on how much countries around the world owe to China as well as conditions for the same. This means that more than 50% of China's loans go unreported ie. debt stocks do not appear in the "Gold standard" data sources provided by World Bank, the IMF or credit rating agencies. These "hidden debts" therefore hamper official surveillance work, the private sector may mis-price debt contracts leading competing creditors to underestimate the risk of default on their claims and finally, global economic activity forecasters may miss important factors influencing global demand. 
Given the global slow growth/lower commodity prices, it may well be a sign of surfacing liquidity and solvency problems in numerous developing countries.
It is imperative therefore that China's role in international finance be revealed alongwith it's potential impact, before it's too late.


बिग बुली।
भारतीय और चीनी सैनिकों को पूर्वी लद्दाख में एक महीने के लिए कम से कम चार क्षेत्रों में एक कड़वे सैन्य स्टैंड में बंद कर दिया गया है।
जबकि दोनों देशों ने शांतिपूर्ण चर्चा के माध्यम से स्टैंड ऑफ को हल करने के लिए अंततः राजनयिक वार्ता की है, द्विपक्षीय संबंध लगभग सभी शत्रुतापूर्ण हैं। यह विकास वास्तव में नया नहीं है कि हमारे बड़े पड़ोसी के साथ लंबे समय से तालमेल हो रहा है और अंडर-टेबल राजनीति खेल रही है।
चीन ने हाल ही में बड़े पैमाने पर गरीबों, जरूरतमंद देशों को संपार्श्विक के साथ ऋण देकर और इस प्रकार, जब वह कर्ज लेने वाले देशों को कर्ज चुकाने में असमर्थ हैं, तब सुपर पावर का दर्जा हासिल किया। चीन ने इस रणनीति का इस्तेमाल इतनी बार किया है कि आज जिबूती, टोंगा, मालदीव, कांगो गणराज्य, किर्गिस्तान, कंबोडिया, नाइजर, लाओस, जाम्बिया, समोआ, वरुटो, मंगोलिया, आदि जैसे देशों में उनके नाममात्र जीडीपी का कम से कम 20% कर्ज है। चाइना के लिए। हालाँकि, परिणामी ऋण प्रवाह और शेयरों पर कोई आधिकारिक डेटा मौजूद नहीं है, जिसके कारण दुनिया भर के देशों को चीन के साथ-साथ उसी की शर्तों के अनुसार कितना अधूरा चित्र है। इसका मतलब है कि चीन के 50% से अधिक ऋण बिना लाइसेंस के चलते हैं। विश्व बैंक, आईएमएफ या क्रेडिट रेटिंग एजेंसियों द्वारा प्रदान किए गए "गोल्ड स्टैंडर्ड" डेटा स्रोतों में ऋण स्टॉक दिखाई नहीं देते हैं। ये "छिपे हुए ऋण" इसलिए आधिकारिक निगरानी कार्य में बाधा डालते हैं, निजी क्षेत्र ऋण अनुबंधों को गलत करार दे सकते हैं, जो प्रतिस्पर्धी लेनदारों को उनके दावों पर डिफ़ॉल्ट के जोखिम को कम करने के लिए नेतृत्व करते हैं और अंत में, वैश्विक आर्थिक गतिविधि के पूर्वानुमानकर्ता वैश्विक मांग को प्रभावित करने वाले महत्वपूर्ण कारकों को याद कर सकते हैं।
वैश्विक धीमी वृद्धि / कमोडिटी की कीमतों को देखते हुए, यह कई विकासशील देशों में तरलता और सॉल्वेंसी की समस्याओं को कम करने का संकेत हो सकता है।
इसलिए यह जरूरी है कि अंतर्राष्ट्रीय वित्त में चीन की भूमिका संभावित प्रभाव के साथ प्रकट हो, इससे पहले कि बहुत देर हो जाए।

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